In the following video there seems to be some encouraging signs that the real estate market in the Maryland Suburbs is beginning to reach an equilibrium.  This is the point where home prices stabilize because there are less than six months of housing supply available for sale and the number of home buyers in the marketplace has decreased.  This video — supplied by MRIS (our local Multiple Listing Service) — indicates that most of the home buyers in the marketplace have already made their purchases in time to get the tax credit that ended on April 30th.

There is a lot of truth to this.  People who were inclined to buy a home did so earlier in the spring when they could get either $8,000 (for first time home buyers) or $6,500 (for exisiting home owners) free money from Uncle Sam in order to get ‘er done.  It is also true that a lot of the foreclosures and short sales are being bought up as the result of additional home buyer assistance from the various Counties in the Maryland Suburbs.

All told, it looks like housing has stopped it’s free fall and is starting to level out.  Check out this video for a more detailed look (it’s only about 3 minute long):

Every so often I like to take a look at the Real Estate Market Trends that I get updated on a weekly basis from Altos Reseach. The four stats I like the best are:

1. Median List Price and Average List Price
2. Inventory (the number of homes available for sale)
3. Days on Market

From what I can see from the table and the charts below there really isn’t much to jump up and down about — at least not in College Park, MD.  It is true that the indications are for a mild housing recovery.  Median price has moved up slightly between March and today.  The number of homes on the market has been decreasing nicely but has started to increase again and the Days on Market is still extremely long.   258 days on market is almost 9 months.

The long period of time that homes are staying on the market without a ratified contract of sale is an indication that short sales are still a large part of the housing stock. Short sales take way to long to go through the red tape at the banks.

Still, three is some indication for hope that, if inventory does not continue to rise, prices will continue to stabilize and the housing recovery will continue.

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In the “Good News” category, pending home sales took a healthy spike of 8.2% in February, according the the National Association of Realtors.  According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, this spike can be attributed to the impending end to the home buyer tax credit and, in part, to recent job growth. All of this is to the good, of course.  Pending home sales are the homes that have contracts on them and are going through the process on the way to settlement.  There are always a few that don’t make it for any number of reasons.  However, my guess is that because of much stricter lending guidelines imposed by the banks, most of the pending home sales will turn into existing home sales (i.e., sold and settled).

Here is a short video (about 4½ minutes long) with Lawrence Yun explaining the report.

Beginning on March 1st, I started running stats from a company I partner with — Altos Research — for some of the towns in the area.  I had two goals:

1. I wanted to provide some information that was concise and fairly easy to interpret as well as graphical and,
2. I wanted to see if stats and the accompanying town name would boost my readership or blog visitors.

Goal #1 was easy to achieve. Altos Research provides a nice Wordpress plug-in that enables me to name my parameters and it formats them into the blog.  Pretty neat. Pretty easy.  Goal #2 was another story.  I use Google Analytics to monitor traffic to my blog and it doesn’t seem to have gotten an appreciable boost as a result of a week’s worth of stats.  Maybe that’s just too short.

The other side of this experiment got me wondering if people really care about a rolling blog of stats.  Sure, if you happen to catch your own town, it’s interesting for the day.  If you don’t live there, not so much.  I was picked up by LocalSpur.com the day I ran College Park, MD stats.  That was kinda neat.  It didn’t create a huge spur of traffic, though.

So, now I’ll return to what I think, what I know and what I can find out about the local real estate market and National events (e.g., expiration of the home buyer tax credit) as they affect the local real estate market.

Quite honestly, this chart is just as depressing as the other towns we have been visiting in Prince Georges County, MD. Lots of homes on the market, moderate pricing and long Days on Market. You can also see that just as many homes have come on the market (5) as have been absorbed by the market (5). This shows an extremely slow turnover or "sell" rate.

Median Price for homes in LAUREL, MD 20707 as of March 5, 2010 is $310,069

Inventory for homes in LAUREL, MD 20707 as of March 5, 2010 is 81

Average Days on Market for homes in LAUREL, MD 20707 as of March 5, 2010 is 230

The charts are trying to show positive news. Median pricing is trying to find a level but still bouncing around. Inventory was declining which was a good thing but it is now beginning to creep up again which will increase downward pressure on prices as home compete with one another for buyers. Days on Market is moving in the right direction although the number of days is still extremely long.

The pricing chart is interesting because it shows a kind of delayed reaction to outside stimulus and home owner wishful thinking. Check this out: home prices are pretty steady up through November of 2009 when the home buyer tax credit was due to expire. Certainly there was a lot of activity and probably a lot of homes got sold during that time period.

Homeowners heard about the activity and started to raise prices in response (big spike), winter came on with the Holidays and then the snow storms and a very lethargic market. Prices started to plummet, again. Now, we have returned to August 2009 levels.

Home owners that want to sell their home would be advised not to chase the market but to lead the market with aggressive pricing to sell their home.

As you can tell by this stats table there are a lot - 74 - condos and townhouses on the market in Beltsville, MD. You can also see that that are taking a long, long, long time to sell - 299 days (on average).

Median Price for homes in BELTSVILLE, MD 20705 as of May 7, 2010 is $131,785

Inventory for homes in BELTSVILLE, MD 20705 as of May 7, 2010 is 73

Average Days on Market for homes in BELTSVILLE, MD 20705 as of May 7, 2010 is 267

The orange line is the 90 day moving average. This is a trend line. The black line is the 7 day moving average which shows more what house prices are doing week to week. What I am seeing is a steady downward trend in home prices. I also see a huge jump in housing inventory. Since these are condos and townhouses, I can only assume that there are a massive amount of short sales and foreclosures that are entering the market.

Foreclosures are OK. The short sales will take close to eight months to flush through the market. Meanwhile there will be continued downward pressure on home prices.

Even though these are condos and townhouses, the pricing for these homes will also continue to put downward pressure on single family home prices.

Think about it. If you could buy a nice townhouse for several tens of thousands of dollars or even one hundred thousand dollars less, would you?

Beltsville is also home to the US Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Center which operates a huge research farm. Driving through the USDA - ARS is like being out in the country.

Beltsville has a mix of single family homes, townhouses and condo. Today we look at single family homes.

As you can see the Days on Market here are longer than any of the other towns we have visited, thus far, and it looks like a new home is listed for every home that is sold. Pricing is moderate for single family homes.

Median Price for homes in BELTSVILLE, MD All ZIP Codes as of June 18, 2010 is $272,442

Inventory for homes in BELTSVILLE, MD All ZIP Codes as of June 18, 2010 is 120

Average Days on Market for homes in BELTSVILLE, MD All ZIP Codes as of June 18, 2010 is 182

These charts show a slightly positive upturn in home pricing in recent months. This may indicate that home prices have fallen to the level where the homes are attractive to home buyers. Housing inventory has also risen, though, and this may create some pressure to keep pricing low.

Days on Market, as mentioned above, is extremely long. However, that chart appears to be moving in the right direction (i.e., down). So, to me, these stats look mildly positive for the Beltsville, MD housing market.

Low prices, relatively high inventory and extremely long days on market. As we have been winding our way through some of the towns in northern Prince Georges County, MD you may have seen a trend. In case you missed it, here it is: falling home prices, lots of homes on the market and a long time to find a buyer for those homes. The only remedy for this is to price the home so that someone, anyone will see that it is a good value. Whether you call this a "bargain" or "giving it away" the sad fact is that unless a home is in pristine condition and priced aggressively you can expect the house will sit on the market without a buyer for a very long time.

Median Price for homes in COLLEGE PARK, MD All ZIP Codes as of February 26, 2010 is $216,165

Inventory for homes in COLLEGE PARK, MD All ZIP Codes as of February 26, 2010 is 96

Average Days on Market for homes in COLLEGE PARK, MD All ZIP Codes as of February 26, 2010 is 278

Median Price is the only bright spot. Of course, median price only helps with showing a trend and does not speak to particular neighborhoods (e.g., Hollywood, College Park Woods, Yarrow, etc.). It is mildly encouraging, though, that after a precipitous drop, prices seem to be bouncing back slightly.

Someone mus have told all the home sellers that prices had started to bounce back a little because, all of a sudden a lot more homes are one the market (the inventory chart). This is not an encouraging sign. It just means that there are a ton more short sales and foreclosures or that people are trying to catch the wave of the home buyer tax credit combined with the spring market. Either scenario puts downward pressure on home prices.

Days on Market seems to be taking a little bit of a dip which is a good thing. Still. Do you want your house on the market for close to a year?!?

There are quite a few of these in Greenbelt and, if you compare the two posts, you will see there is a huge difference in the amount of home in the mix. Condo communities include Greenbriar Condominiums, Greenbelt Lake Village and Chelsea Woods. Townhouse communities include Windsor Green, Greenbrook and Green Holly Woods.

As you can see the pricing is considerably less expensive. The average and median home prices can be misleading, though. Condos are considerably less expensive than townhouses even though the condo fees are considerably higher than the Home Owner Association fees associated with owning a townhouse.

Days on Market are comparable to single family homes which is an indication of the number of foreclosures and short sales which continue to put downward pressure on home prices.

Median Price for homes in GREENBELT, MD All ZIP Codes as of June 4, 2010 is $152,096

Inventory for homes in GREENBELT, MD All ZIP Codes as of June 4, 2010 is 160

Average Days on Market for homes in GREENBELT, MD All ZIP Codes as of June 4, 2010 is 147

The charts do not tell a pretty story. Home prices for condos and townhouses are continuing to drop rapidly. Hopefully, some of this downward price movement is because the banks are finally willing to reduce the number of homes they hold. This is not the entire story, though. Even though Greenbelt is in an excellent location in a much sought after school district it still attracts low to moderate income home buyers who have a harder time obtaining mortgages at higher prices, if they can qualify for any mortgage.

Age and condition of a lot of these condos and townhouses also come into play. There is only one "newer" condo community (Greenbelt Lake Village) and that was built about ten years ago. The others were built in the 70s and condo fees are extremely high to cover the cost of utilities and common area maintenance and upkeep.

This stats chart shows a higher median price vs the average price which is a good thing. However, the days on market is still very high (almost 9 months) so prices need to come down to move the inventory a little more quickly and bump up the absorption rate.

Median Price for homes in GREENBELT, MD 20770 as of February 26, 2010 is $358,232

Inventory for homes in GREENBELT, MD 20770 as of February 26, 2010 is 12

Average Days on Market for homes in GREENBELT, MD 20770 as of February 26, 2010 is 259

You see the home prices are bouncing up and down like a three year old after two pieces of chocolate cake. This indicates that prices have not stabilized and from the looks of the Days on Market and increasing inventory home prices will be under downward pressure for some time to come.