In a previous post I entitled: Will A New Administration Stimulate Home Sales?, I suggested that just because a new Administration was coming to Washington didn’t necessarily mean that home sales would see a big spike…or even a little spike.

I wrote about it because many people believe (or want to believe) that an election brings in lots more people that will need houses to live in.  This would be especially true is a brand new Administration from a different party comes to town.  Such is the case, now, with Barack Obama winning the Presidency and the Democrats gaining seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

It Ain’t Necessarily So.

An article in today’s Real Estate section of The Washington Post confirms my thinking (and experience) about the likelihood that anything different will happen. This article :Change You Won’t See authored by Maryann Haggerty shows research that indicates that many of the players are already living in the area or will be commuting back and forth to their home elsewhere.

In the accompanying graphic there is a bump shortly after George W. Bush was elected for his first term. This coincides with the beginning of the housing frenzy/bubble.  As you can tell the number of home sales rises and rises and rises from about 2000 to 2005 - the year the air is being let out of the housing bubble. After 2005 you see a serious decrease in home sales, again, due to increased credit restrictions and the overall decline of the economy.

So the moral to the story is that we should not expect to see an increase in homes sales just because a change in Administration is taking place.

It’s my fantasy that the optimism and confidence that the President-Elect brings will help. We can only, er, hope.