I’m always kind of surprised when people ask me questions about the future. During the “frenzy” between 2000 and 2005 I would be asked, “When do you think prices will peak?” Now, I’m being asked, “When do you think prices will hit bottom” or “How much farther are prices going to drop?”

I got a question just the other day from someone who knows they will be moving in five years.  So that question was, “Where can I buy something that I know will appreciate enough in five years so that me and my [co-buyers] will see a profit?”

I suppose it’s only human nature to want to know, with some certainty, what the future holds.  Who wouldn’t want to know what house or condo to buy knowing that in five years it’ll be worth so much more that the buyers would be able to realize a profit?

This is called investing and, as with all investing, there is some risk. In this case, the real risk is that no one can tell the future.

Who Knew?

Who would have thought even as recently as three months ago that Governments worldwide would need to intervene in the economic crisis to stabilize the global economy? How can anyone (even a professional Realtor) know when prices will peak or bottom?  Who knows which neighborhood will be the first to “turn around” with prices starting back up again?

The truth is: no one can know for sure.  It’s like guaranteeing you the winning lottery number.  I might get lucky and give you some numbers that actually hit the lottery (full disclosure: this hasn’t worked for me, personally, yet). I might get lucky and help you pick a home that does, in fact, go up in price within the next five years. However, it would be just that: luck. Random chance.

My Predictions

But, hey, let’s give it a try.

  • Date the market will “bottom out” and home prices will begin to rise in the MD Suburbs of DC. -  May 27, 2009

I’d be interested in two things:

  1. Did you hit the lottery? (I’ll help you buy that nice house in Potomac, MD)
  2. Was I right on the date?